castillotrading

How this grade was reached

1. Starting point
   Everyone starts at BBB: no red flags found on the checks below.
   BBB
2. Findings
   The checks below found nothing against them.
   no change
3. Calls
   Their calls were tested against chance: 46% came good where chance would give 43%. On about 12 calls, a 3-point gap could still be luck: moving a grade needs a record that luck alone would produce less than once in a thousand, so the grade does not change. On this record, the test would reliably detect only an edge of about 56 points or more, so “in line with chance” means there is not yet enough evidence either way, not that there is no skill.

   46% came good

   chance 43%
   no change
4. GradeBBBNo red flags found on the checks listed. The starting point for everyone.

What we checked

Material read

659 of their own items and their profile · X profile, posts on X

Sells paid access

None found

Invites paid promotion

None found

Referral links

None found

Removes their record

Not yet measured. Removals count only after 30 days of watching, so this grade is provisional until then.

Regulator warning lists

Not yet checked

How they talk

39% of their directional statements name a price level(described, not scored)

1. 29 Sept

   BTCLong84,333 → 98,000· 35d

   If we start to look at a larger scale Current Range on $BTC we can start to notice a few things.

   Restates a call that was still open · counted once. Still open.source ↗

   Open
2. 21 Sept

   BTCLong81,178 → 98,179· 93d

   $BTC continues to have another weekly close above the 2025 Yearly Lows.

   Still open.source ↗

   Open
3. 14 Sept

   BTCLongtrigger 74,500 → test level 80,029

   Key levels not lost on the weekly close for both $BTC and $ETH No reason to think downside until those levels are lost $BTC - 2025 Yearly Lows ($74,500) $ETH - Local…

   Setup, no stop named, 3% risk assumed. Price moved against the call.source ↗

   Miss
4. 10 Sept

   BTCLong78,306 → 98,000· 54d

   Few differences I am seeing from previous cycle bottom compared to where we are within our current cycle bottom.

   Still open.source ↗

   Open
5. 28 Aug

   BTCLongtrigger 78,419 → test level 82,033

   Dips aren't really happening right now. If we get a re-test of $78,419 nPOC on $BTC, I would be using that level as your dip buying opportunity. We aren't getting…

   Setup, no stop named, 3% risk assumed. Price moved against the call.source ↗

   Miss
6. 20 Aug

   DOGELong0.08325 → 0.09· 11d

   Another winner coming from a very easy and straightforward setup on $DOGE.

   Target reached inside the window.source ↗

   Hit
7. 11 Aug

   ETHLong1,875 → 2,500· 274d

   $ETH has a fairly straightforward setup going on.

   Target reached inside the window.source ↗

   Hit
8. 28 Jul

   ETHShort1,892 → 1,786· 6d

   All nPOC levels have closed on $BTC but we still have a few remaining on $ETH.

   Price moved against the call.source ↗

   Miss
9. 19 Jul

   BTCLongtrigger 62,793 → test level 66,523

   If we get these re-test levels on bitcoin:native and $ETH you should consider taking a stab at some longs if you aren't already positioned.

   Setup, no stop named, 3% risk assumed. Target reached inside the window.source ↗

   Hit
10. 4 Jul

    BTCLong62,943 → 71,365· 30d

    My target on $BTC still remains $71,365 nPOC print for the month of July. Does it go straight there?

    Price moved against the call.source ↗

    Miss

Every change of this person's published letter, newest first, with what moved it.

1. 7 Oct 2026D→BBB

   New rating method (v5): No red flags on the checks listed

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