ColinTcrypto

How this grade was reached

1. Starting point
   Everyone starts at BBB: no red flags found on the checks below.
   BBB
2. Findings
   The checks below found nothing against them.
   no change
3. Calls
   Their calls were tested against chance: 47% came good where chance would give 31%. On about 17 calls, a 15-point gap could still be luck: moving a grade needs a record that luck alone would produce less than once in a thousand, so the grade does not change. On this record, the test would reliably detect only an edge of about 49 points or more, so “in line with chance” means there is not yet enough evidence either way, not that there is no skill.

   47% came good

   chance 31%
   no change
4. GradeBBBNo red flags found on the checks listed. The starting point for everyone.

What we checked

Material read

625 of their own items and their profile · X profile, posts on X

Sells paid access

None found

Invites paid promotion

None found

Referral links

None found

Removes their record

Not yet measured. Removals count only after 30 days of watching, so this grade is provisional until then.

Regulator warning lists

Not yet checked

Last public post

1 days ago

How they talk

37% of their directional statements name a price level(described, not scored)

1. 4 Aug

   BTCShort64,125 → 49,000· 252d

   What's my invalidation for being bearish? I'd consider pivoting from bearish to bullish if $BTC: 1.

   Still open.source ↗

   Open
2. 21 Jul

   BTCLong66,292 → 70,000· 12d

   Noticing people getting cocky on the timeline about the $BTC bottom being in. On a measly $5k rally or whatever. That’s not a good sign for bulls. Optimism has…

   Restates a call that was still open · counted once. Price moved against the call.source ↗

   Miss
3. 15 Jul

   BTCLong64,768 → 70,000· 23d

   $BTC sees a tiny pump and hope floods the timeline.

   Price moved against the call.source ↗

   Miss
4. 15 Jun

   BTCShort67,158 → 60,000· 25d

   Notice how quiet the permabulls are lately? I have.

   Target reached inside the window.source ↗

   Hit
5. 2 Jun

   BTCShort67,492 → 40,000· 365d

   Putting the $BTC bear market in perspective: In order for $60,000 to be the cycle bottom it would mean BTC had reached $200,000! But BTC DIDN'T reach $200k! It only…

   Restates a call that was still open · counted once. Still open.source ↗

   Open
6. 1 Jun

   BTCShort72,222 → 61,000· 130d

   $BTC H&S Top Breakdown & Channel Breakdown Target: $61,000

   Target reached inside the window.source ↗

   Hit
7. 31 May

   BTCShort73,602 → 60,000· 188d

   $BTC Decision Point: Mid-$60k's incoming? We have an H&S Top pattern.

   Target reached inside the window.source ↗

   Hit
8. 29 May

   BTCShort73,529 → 38,000· 365d

   This guy is calling a further $BTC drop a “retarded thesis”.

   Restates a call that was still open · counted once. Still open.source ↗

   Open
9. 28 Apr

   BTCLong76,464 → 80,000· 7d

   Bitcoin $BTC Backtest of downward sloping trend line (see arrow).

   Target reached inside the window.source ↗

   Hit
10. 2 Apr

    BTCShort66,868 → 40,000· 278d

    Bear Market Targets $BTC $35k-$40k $ETH $900 These may seem low, but see the video below for why I think these are actually realistic targets:

    Still open.source ↗

    Open

Every change of this person's published letter, newest first, with what moved it.

1. 7 Oct 2026C→BBB

   New rating method (v5): No red flags on the checks listed

Is this you? Claim this profile →